Operation Sindoor: India's Strikes on Pakistan Ignite Debate Over Deterrence and Regional Stability

In escalation of tensions between South Asia's nuclear-armed neighbors, India launched a series of missile strikes—codenamed "Operation Sindoor"—on May 7, targeting alleged militant infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The operation was presented by Indian officials as a necessary response to the April 22 massacre of 26 Hindu tourists in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, an attack claimed by The Resistance Front, an offshoot of the Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Taiba. 

Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated that the strikes aimed to "deter and pre-empt" future attacks, accusing Pakistan of failing to dismantle terrorist infrastructure within its territory. Targets included Muridke, near Lahore, identified by India as the site of the Markaz Taiba camp associated with the 2008 Mumbai attacks, and Bahawalpur, alleged headquarters of Jaish-e-Mohammed, linked to the 2019 Pulwama suicide bombing. 

However, analysts question the efficacy of such strikes as a deterrent. Ajai Sahni, Executive Director of the South Asia Terrorism Portal, remarked, "The Indian strikes have no deterrent value. The aim of the strike has nothing to do with military takeaway—the aim was to speak with [India's] own domestic audience." He suggested that both India and Pakistan are engaging in actions primarily for domestic political consumption, rather than achieving strategic military objectives. 

Pakistan condemned the strikes as an "act of war," denying involvement in the Pahalgam attack and asserting that civilian areas, including a mosque, were hit, resulting in 31 deaths. In retaliation, Pakistan claimed to have downed Indian fighter jets and launched artillery shelling across the Line of Control, escalating fears of a broader conflict. 

The international community has expressed concern over the escalating situation. Global powers, including the United States, United Kingdom, and China, have urged both nations to exercise restraint and engage in dialogue to prevent further escalation. The potential for miscalculation between two nuclear-armed states underscores the urgency of diplomatic intervention. 

As the region teeters on the brink, the effectiveness of military strikes as a tool for deterrence remains under scrutiny. The need for sustained diplomatic engagement and confidence-building measures between India and Pakistan is more critical than ever to ensure regional stability and prevent a descent into wider conflict.